Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season is officially in the books, and what a week of football it was. From Jacksonville’s dramatic victory over Philadelphia in London to San Francisco surviving Seattle and Buffalo defeating Los Angeles in an unforgettable Monday Night Football overtime thriller, this week certainly delivered plenty of entertainment.
Unfortunately, our predictions did not fare quite as well. After going 10–6 in Week 4, we finished Week 5 with a 7–7–1 record. Several of our safer selections delivered convincing victories, but a handful of upset predictions went against us, including three particularly painful defeats.
Let’s review all 15 predictions and see exactly where we went right and wrong.
Week 5 Results
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Dallas Cowboys 16
Our Pick: Dallas Cowboys ❌
We opened the week with a loss as Tampa Bay defeated Dallas on Thursday Night Football. The Cowboys entered the contest with an opportunity to build momentum, but their defense struggled once again, particularly against the Buccaneers’ rushing attack. Dallas had opportunities to remain competitive but ultimately failed to execute when it mattered most. Tampa Bay deserved the victory, and our decision to trust Dallas proved costly.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars 19, Philadelphia Eagles 17
Our Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars ✅
One of our better predictions of the week. Jacksonville delivered a dramatic victory over Philadelphia in London, with Parker Washington producing an outstanding performance that included 124 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and one of the most ridiculous catches of the season. The Jaguars survived a late Philadelphia comeback before Cam Little delivered the winning field goal. Jacksonville continues to demonstrate that it belongs among the AFC’s better teams.
3. Cincinnati Bengals 31, Miami Dolphins 24
Our Pick: Cincinnati Bengals ✅
Cincinnati delivered as expected, defeating a struggling Miami team behind four touchdown passes from Joe Burrow. The Bengals were efficient offensively and built enough of an advantage to withstand Miami’s late push. This was one of the more straightforward selections on our board, and Cincinnati justified our confidence.
4. New England Patriots 45, Las Vegas Raiders 17
Our Pick: New England Patriots ✅
Perhaps our easiest victory of the week. Drake Maye was sensational, throwing four touchdowns and adding another on the ground as New England demolished Las Vegas. The Patriots dominated virtually every aspect of the contest, and the Raiders had few answers. New England is quickly establishing itself as a serious contender, while Las Vegas has plenty of questions to answer.
5. Minnesota Vikings 23, New Orleans Saints 13
Our Pick: New Orleans Saints ❌
We took a chance on New Orleans pulling off the upset, but Minnesota had other ideas. The Vikings’ defense delivered another impressive performance, frustrating the Saints and keeping them out of the end zone in the fourth quarter. Minnesota remains undefeated, and its disciplined defensive play continues to be a major reason why. In hindsight, betting against this Vikings team was a mistake.
6. New York Jets 17, Cleveland Browns 12
Our Pick: Cleveland Browns ❌
Cleveland disappointed us with a 17–12 defeat against the Jets. The Browns struggled to generate enough offense, while New York did just enough to secure the victory. Cleveland had opportunities to win a relatively low-scoring contest but failed to capitalize. This was a winnable game, making the incorrect prediction particularly frustrating.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers 34, Indianapolis Colts 22
Our Pick: Indianapolis Colts ❌
We backed Indianapolis, but Aaron Rodgers turned back the clock with an excellent three-touchdown performance. Pittsburgh controlled the contest and consistently found ways to move the football, while the Colts struggled to contain the Steelers’ offense. Rodgers deserves considerable credit for his efficiency and execution. Indianapolis simply could not match Pittsburgh when it mattered.
8. Houston Texans 26, Tennessee Titans 3
Our Pick: Houston Texans ✅
Houston finally delivered a convincing victory, dismantling Tennessee 26–3. The Texans controlled the game defensively and never allowed the Titans to establish any meaningful offensive rhythm. Although Houston still has plenty of issues to address this season, this was exactly the type of performance it needed. Our prediction was comfortably correct.
9. New York Giants 27, Washington Commanders 27
Our Pick: New York Giants ➖ Tie
A tie. Of course there had to be a tie.
The Giants and Commanders somehow finished level after overtime, leaving neither team particularly satisfied. New York fought its way back into the contest, but Washington had opportunities to win and failed to capitalize. The Commanders even allowed the clock to expire in overtime despite being within range of a potential game-winning field goal.
We backed the Giants, and while they avoided defeat, they could not deliver the victory. One tie added to the record.
10. Green Bay Packers 31, Chicago Bears 7
Our Pick: Green Bay Packers ✅
Green Bay made this prediction look easy. The Packers dismantled Chicago 31–7, with Jordan Love throwing for 367 yards and Christian Watson recording 143 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Chicago entered the game with momentum but was thoroughly outplayed. Green Bay’s offense was explosive, its defense was disciplined, and the result was never seriously in doubt during the second half.
11. Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 17
Our Pick: Denver Broncos ✅
Denver delivered another important victory, defeating the Chargers 23–17. The Broncos had to battle through a difficult contest, particularly after Los Angeles took control during the third quarter. However, Denver responded with 13 unanswered points in the fourth to secure the win. We trusted the Broncos to get the job done, and they rewarded that confidence.
12. Detroit Lions 45, Arizona Cardinals 21
Our Pick: Detroit Lions ✅
Detroit produced one of the week’s most convincing performances, overwhelming Arizona 45–21. Jahmyr Gibbs was outstanding, rushing for 151 yards, while the Lions’ offense repeatedly exposed weaknesses in the Cardinals’ defense. After a disappointing loss to Carolina in Week 4, Detroit responded emphatically. This was another comfortable victory for our predictions.
13. San Francisco 49ers 32, Seattle Seahawks 29
Our Pick: Seattle Seahawks ❌
This one hurt. We backed Seattle to hand San Francisco its first defeat of the season, and for stretches of the game, that prediction looked promising.
The Seahawks fought hard and held a lead entering the fourth quarter, but San Francisco once again demonstrated why it remains undefeated. The 49ers made the necessary plays down the stretch and escaped with a 32–29 victory.
Seattle had its chances, but San Francisco’s resilience ultimately prevailed. We underestimated the 49ers’ ability to win close games, and that cost us another prediction.
14. Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23 (OT)
Our Pick: Atlanta Falcons ❌
Another painful defeat, and another game that went to overtime.
Atlanta appeared to be in a strong position for much of the contest, but Baltimore refused to go away. Tyler Huntley helped engineer an impressive comeback, while Derrick Henry’s direct-snap two-point conversion tied the game late in regulation.
The Ravens then took control in overtime, with Huntley scoring on a quarterback sneak. Atlanta had one final opportunity to respond, but an interception ended the contest.
We backed the Falcons to pull off the upset, and they came close. Unfortunately, close does not count in our predictions.
15. Buffalo Bills 37, Los Angeles Rams 34 (OT)
Our Pick: Los Angeles Rams ❌
What an unbelievable football game, and what a heartbreaking way to finish our predictions.
Matthew Stafford was outstanding, throwing for 383 yards and three touchdowns, while Puka Nacua recorded an incredible 17 receptions for 138 yards and a touchdown.
The Rams put together one of the most disciplined and impressive late-game drives of the season, scoring a touchdown to force overtime. Stafford repeatedly delivered under pressure, and Los Angeles eventually positioned itself for a potential game-winning field goal.
Then disaster struck.
The kick was blocked, giving Buffalo another opportunity. Josh Allen took advantage, moving the Bills into position for the winning field goal as Buffalo escaped with a 37–34 victory.
We were one successful kick away from getting this prediction right. Instead, we finished the week with another loss.
It was arguably the best Monday Night Football game of the season, but it was a brutal ending for our Week 5 picks.
Week 5 Final Record
7 Wins — 7 Losses — 1 Tie
Updated 2026 Season Record
| Week | Record |
|---|---|
| Week 1 | 11–4–1 |
| Week 2 | 11–5 |
| Week 3 | 6–10 |
| Week 4 | 10–6 |
| Week 5 | 7–7–1 |
| Overall | 45–32–2 |
Winning Percentage: 58.4% (excluding ties)
What Went Right?
Our strongest selections were the teams we trusted to handle their business against weaker opponents. New England, Houston, Green Bay, and Detroit all delivered convincing victories, while Cincinnati and Jacksonville secured important wins.
Denver also rewarded our confidence with a hard-fought comeback victory over Los Angeles.
Seven correct predictions are not terrible, but considering how some of the other games unfolded, we certainly had opportunities for a better week.
What Went Wrong?
The biggest issue was our willingness to back underdogs against some of the league’s most consistent teams.
We selected New Orleans to upset Minnesota, Seattle to defeat San Francisco, and Atlanta to overcome Baltimore. All three predictions failed, with the latter two being particularly frustrating.
We also trusted Cleveland and Indianapolis in games they ultimately failed to win.
Then there was Los Angeles. Unlike several of our other incorrect selections, the Rams genuinely looked capable of delivering the victory. Stafford did everything necessary to put his team in position to win, only for a blocked field goal to completely change the outcome.
Sometimes a prediction is wrong because the analysis was poor. Other times, football simply refuses to cooperate. Week 5 featured a little of both.
Final Thoughts
Week 5 was a reminder of just how unpredictable the NFL can be. We finished with a 7–7–1 record, bringing our overall season record to 45–32–2.
There were some excellent predictions, particularly Jacksonville and Denver, but our aggressive upset selections ultimately dragged down the final result.
The most frustrating part is that several losses were genuinely within reach. Seattle, Atlanta, and Los Angeles all had opportunities to win, and the Rams were particularly unfortunate after their potential game-winning field goal was blocked.
Nevertheless, there is no point dwelling on missed opportunities. We remain comfortably above .500 for the season, and Week 6 presents another opportunity to improve our record.
Did you outperform our Week 5 predictions? Which result surprised you the most?
Let us know in the comments, and remember to like, share, and subscribe to Ethical Sports Takes for weekly NFL predictions, game recaps, power rankings, and analysis.
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