The 2026–27 NBA season is 2 weeks away, which means it is time to make some award predictions.
Instead of predicting every single award, I am keeping this simple and focusing on the four that interest me the most: MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year and Coach of the Year.
Some of these races should be wide open.
One of them, however, I think could be dominated by the same player.
Here are my predictions for four of the NBA’s biggest awards in 2026–27.
MVP — Victor Wembanyama
My pick for MVP is Victor Wembanyama.
And I think he is going to enter this season with a massive chip on his shoulder after the way last season ended.
Wembanyama had already established himself as one of the best players in basketball, winning Defensive Player of the Year and finishing third in MVP voting. But the Spurs’ season ultimately ended with a loss to the Knicks in the NBA Finals.
For a player as competitive and talented as Wembanyama, I think that loss is going to matter.
San Antonio now knows it is capable of reaching the Finals. Wemby knows he is capable of being the best player on a championship team. The next step is turning himself from an MVP candidate into the MVP.
And the scary part is that he still has room to improve.
Last season, Wembanyama averaged 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.1 blocks per game while becoming the league’s most dominant defensive player. If his offensive production takes another step forward while San Antonio remains near the top of the Western Conference, his MVP case could become extremely difficult to beat.
Luka Dončić, Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and others will obviously be in the conversation.
But Wembanyama impacts basketball differently because of what he can do on both ends of the floor.
He can dominate a game offensively while simultaneously changing everything an opponent wants to do around the rim.
After getting all the way to the Finals and coming up short, I expect Wemby to return even better.
My prediction: Victor Wembanyama wins his first NBA MVP.
Defensive Player of the Year — Victor Wembanyama
Yes.
I am picking Wemby again.
And when you look at what he did defensively last season, it is difficult to pick anybody else.
Wembanyama averaged a league-leading 3.08 blocks per game, finishing the season with 197 total blocks. He added 66 steals, giving him 263 combined steals and blocks and an NBA-best 4.11 stocks per game.
He also finished first in the NBA with 5.0 defensive win shares.
But even those numbers do not fully capture his impact.
Opponents shot just 40.7% against Wembanyama, the best opponent field-goal percentage in the league, while he also led the NBA with 9.3 contested shots per game.
Then there is what happened to San Antonio’s defense whenever he stepped onto the floor.
The Spurs allowed 10.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with Wembanyama on the court than when he was off it, and San Antonio finished the season third in the NBA in defensive rating.
That is absurd defensive impact.
His shot blocking is obviously ridiculous, but Wembanyama’s defense goes far beyond blocks. Players change shots because he is nearby. Drivers hesitate before attacking the paint. Entire possessions can change simply because Wembanyama is standing around the rim.
There are plenty of elite defenders in the NBA.
There is only one Victor Wembanyama.
He was the youngest Defensive Player of the Year in NBA history last season and became the first unanimous winner of the award. He has also now led the NBA in blocks per game in three consecutive seasons.
And if my MVP prediction is correct, Wembanyama would accomplish something extremely rare.
Only Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon and Giannis Antetokounmpo have won MVP and Defensive Player of the Year during the same season.
I think Wemby becomes the next name on that list.
At only 22 years old.
We might eventually look back at this period as the beginning of Wembanyama completely taking over the NBA.
My prediction: Victor Wembanyama wins MVP and DPOY in the same season.
Rookie of the Year — AJ Dybantsa
For Rookie of the Year, I am going with the No. 1 overall pick, AJ Dybantsa.
This rookie class has several players who could realistically win the award, including Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson.
But Dybantsa is my pick.
He led the country in scoring at BYU last season at 25.5 points per game, and Washington selected him first overall for a reason. He has the scoring ability, size and versatility to eventually become one of the NBA’s premier wings.
And I actually really like the situation he is walking into in Washington.
The Wizards have a good roster around him, headlined by Trae Young and Anthony Davis. Trae gives Dybantsa an elite playmaker who can create easy opportunities for him, while a healthy Davis gives Washington one of the best two-way big men in basketball.
Can this team make the playoffs?
Absolutely.
The biggest question is what Washington ultimately decides to do with Davis. Do they view him as part of what they are building and keep him around, or does his contract situation eventually lead them to trade him and continue building around their younger core?
Trae’s situation is much clearer. Washington gave him a four-year max contract worth roughly $212 million this offseason, so he appears to be there for the long haul.
That means Dybantsa isn’t entering the NBA and immediately being asked to carry an entire franchise by himself. He gets to play alongside an established All-Star point guard, potentially Anthony Davis, and a collection of talented young players while still having plenty of opportunity to establish himself as one of Washington’s primary offensive weapons.
That could be the perfect environment for a rookie.
Rookie of the Year often comes down to opportunity, production and narrative. Dybantsa should have all three.
There will undoubtedly be growing pains. Almost every rookie has them.
But by the end of the season, I think Dybantsa will have separated himself from the rest of this class — and if Washington surprises people and finds itself competing for a playoff spot, his Rookie of the Year case could become even stronger.
My prediction: AJ Dybantsa wins Rookie of the Year.
Coach of the Year — Nick Nurse
My final prediction is Nick Nurse for Coach of the Year.
Philadelphia went 45–37 last season, finishing seventh in the Eastern Conference.
I think this team could realistically improve by around 10 wins in 2026–27.
Why?
Look at what Nurse has to work with now.
The 76ers have added LeBron James and Jaylen Brown, giving Nurse significantly more talent to work with than he had a year ago. If Philadelphia can turn those additions into a jump from 45 wins to somewhere around 55 wins, they should be fighting near the top of the Eastern Conference.
And that is exactly the type of improvement that gets a coach serious consideration for Coach of the Year.
Nurse has already proven he can coach a championship team. He won the NBA championship with Toronto in 2019 and has consistently shown an ability to adjust his schemes and get creative with his personnel.
Now he has the opportunity to take a team that finished seventh in the East last season and potentially turn it into one of the conference’s best teams.
There will obviously be challenges.
Adding major pieces means figuring out rotations, roles and how to maximize several high-level players together. But that is also where Nurse can separate himself.
If Philadelphia wins around 10 more games, finishes near the top of the East and looks like a legitimate championship contender, I think Nurse will have one of the strongest Coach of the Year cases in basketball.
A jump from 45 wins to roughly 55 would be difficult for voters to ignore.
My prediction: Nick Nurse wins his second Coach of the Year award.
Final Predictions
MVP — Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Defensive Player of the Year — Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Rookie of the Year — AJ Dybantsa, Washington Wizards
Coach of the Year — Nick Nurse, Philadelphia 76ers
The prediction I feel strongest about is Wembanyama.
Last season proved that San Antonio can compete for a championship. Now I think we see Wemby take another step individually and accomplish something only three players in NBA history have done before him: win MVP and Defensive Player of the Year in the same season.
If that happens while the Spurs once again compete for a championship, the conversation surrounding Wembanyama will start becoming much bigger than whether he is the best player in basketball right now.
The Wemby era may be about to fully begin.
Who are your picks for the NBA’s major awards this season?
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