We’re back.
After an ugly 6–10 showing in Week 3, Ethical Sports Takes bounced back with a 10–6 record in Week 4, bringing our season record to 38–25–1.
Now it’s time for Week 5.
The bye weeks have officially arrived, with the Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs getting the week off. That leaves us with 15 games, and this might be our boldest slate of picks yet.
We’re backing Jacksonville in London, fading two undefeated teams, picking Atlanta for a major Sunday Night Football upset and once again going against Buffalo.
Let’s get into it.
Thursday Night Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Cowboys
Dallas got back on track with a 34–30 win over Houston last week, and Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb looked excellent doing it.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, fell 17–14 to Green Bay.
At home on Thursday night, we’re trusting Dallas to keep the momentum going.
Cowboys win.
London
Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Jaguars
Jacksonville has officially earned our respect.
The Jaguars went into Cincinnati and won 22–17 last week, improving to 3–1 and earning a spot in our EST Elite Top 10.
Philadelphia is heading in the opposite direction after losing 24–20 at home to the Rams.
Now the Eagles have to travel to London and deal with a Jacksonville team playing some excellent football.
We’re riding with the Jaguars.
Jaguars win.
Sunday Early Games
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
Pick: Bengals
Cincinnati disappointed us last week against Jacksonville, but we’re giving the Bengals another chance.
Miami managed just 10 points against Minnesota in Week 4, while the Vikings didn’t even score a touchdown and still found a way to beat them.
Cincinnati should be able to generate enough offense to bounce back.
Bengals win.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots
Pick: Patriots
New England just walked into Buffalo and handed the Bills their first loss of the season.
That gets our attention.
Drake Maye was excellent, and the Patriots are playing much better football than we expected coming into the year.
Las Vegas pushed Kansas City all the way to the end last week, so this won’t be easy, but we’re riding the hot hand.
Patriots win.
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Pick: Saints
Here comes one of our first big upsets.
Minnesota is undefeated, but we weren’t particularly impressed by its 15–10 win over Miami last week. The Vikings scored five field goals and couldn’t find the end zone once against the Dolphins.
New Orleans just got destroyed 45–24 by Atlanta, so yes, this is risky.
But we’re calling for the upset.
Minnesota’s perfect season ends in New Orleans.
Saints win.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets
Pick: Browns
Cleveland continues to surprise us.
The Browns beat Pittsburgh 27–24 last Thursday and have been much more competitive than we expected this season.
The Jets just lost 23–12 to Chicago and haven’t given us enough reason to trust them here.
We’re sticking with Cleveland.
Browns win.
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Colts
Indianapolis looked excellent in its 30–13 win over Washington.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, just lost to Cleveland and continues to be difficult to trust from week to week.
The Steelers are at home, but we like what we’ve seen from Indianapolis more.
Colts win.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Pick: Texans
Houston lost a close one to Dallas last week, but we’re still taking the Texans over Tennessee.
The Titans kept things competitive against Baltimore, but they still came away with another loss.
Houston has the better team, and we’re trusting them to take care of business.
Texans win.
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders
Pick: Giants
The Giants might be figuring something out.
New York just put up 36 points in a convincing victory over Arizona, while Washington was beaten 30–13 by Indianapolis.
We’re riding with the team coming into this matchup with momentum.
Giants win.
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Pick: Packers
This should be one of the most interesting games of the week.
Chicago is 3–1 and continues to find ways to win even without Caleb Williams. The Bears deserve plenty of credit for that.
But Green Bay responded to its embarrassing Week 3 loss with a tough 17–14 victory over Tampa Bay.
At Lambeau, we’re giving the Packers the edge in the rivalry.
Packers win.
Sunday Late Games
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Broncos
Another upset.
Denver lost 24–14 to San Francisco last week, but there’s no shame in losing on the road to the team currently sitting atop our EST Elite rankings.
We’re backing the Broncos to rebound against the Chargers.
This one could easily go either way, but Denver gets our pick.
Broncos win.
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Lions
Detroit got stunned by Carolina on Sunday Night Football.
We don’t expect that to happen twice.
The Lions need a response after giving up 32 points to Bryce Young, Tetairoa McMillan and the Panthers, and Arizona is coming off a 36–24 loss to the Giants.
Detroit gets back on track.
Lions win.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Seahawks
Game of the week candidate.
San Francisco is 4–0 and just moved into the No. 1 spot in our EST Elite power rankings. Seattle is 3–1 and sitting right behind the league’s best teams.
So why are we picking Seattle?
Home field and the matchup.
These are two teams we rate extremely highly, and in a divisional game at Seattle, we’re taking the Seahawks to hand San Francisco its first loss of the season.
Seahawks win.
Sunday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Falcons
Here it is.
Our biggest upset pick of Week 5.
Atlanta just demolished New Orleans 45–24 and now gets Baltimore at home on Sunday Night Football.
The Ravens beat Tennessee last week, but Lamar Jackson left that game with an ankle injury, creating another major question heading into Sunday night.
We’re taking the swing.
Atlanta pulls off the upset under the lights.
Falcons win.
Monday Night Football
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Rams
We’re doing it again.
Last week, we trusted Buffalo at home against New England.
The Patriots handed them their first loss.
Now the Bills have to travel across the country and face a Rams team coming off an impressive 24–20 road victory over Philadelphia.
Los Angeles earned our trust with that performance, and we’re riding with them again.
Buffalo drops two straight.
Rams win.
Week 4 got us back on track.
Week 5?
We’re swinging.
The Jaguars, Saints, Broncos, Seahawks, Falcons and Rams are all picks that could make this week look brilliant — or make next Tuesday’s review very uncomfortable.
Either way, we’ll own it.
Make sure to like and subscribe to Ethical Sports Takes for weekly NFL picks, EST Elite power rankings, EST Excellence awards, game recaps and analysis throughout the season.
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