2026 Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia Qualifying Predictions

Formula 1 is back at Sepang, and after two practice sessions, we finally have our first real look at who could be fighting for pole position at the Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia.

Friday gave us two different drivers at the top. Max Verstappen led FP1 ahead of George Russell, while Charles Leclerc topped FP2 ahead of Isack Hadjar and Lando Norris. With qualifying coming up on Saturday, here are my predictions for the top three.

🥇 P1 — Max Verstappen

My pick for pole position is Max Verstappen.

Verstappen looked immediately comfortable around Sepang, topping FP1 with a 1:37.520 and finishing nearly four tenths ahead of George Russell.

His FP2 result might not jump off the page after finishing fourth, but there is an important detail: Verstappen was the only driver who did not run the soft tyre. He still managed a 1:37.785 on the mediums and finished only 0.257 seconds behind Charles Leclerc.

That makes Max my favorite for pole. Once Red Bull puts the soft tyres on and turns everything up for qualifying, I think he will have the pace to take P1.

🥈 P2 — George Russell

I have George Russell joining Verstappen on the front row.

Russell was second-fastest in FP1 and looked immediately comfortable at Sepang. FP2 was more difficult, with George finishing seventh after failing to put together a clean soft-tyre lap, but I am not reading too much into that result.

Mercedes clearly has speed around this circuit, and Russell is coming into Malaysia after winning in Baku last weekend. If Mercedes can clean things up before qualifying, I expect George to be right in the fight at the front.

I don’t quite have him beating Max, but I think P2 is there for him.

🥉 P3 — Charles Leclerc

Charles Leclerc rounds out my predicted top three.

Ferrari looked strong throughout Friday, and Leclerc finished FP2 at the top of the timesheets with a 1:37.528. He beat Hadjar by 0.099 seconds and Norris by 0.137 seconds.

Unlike Max and George, Charles already put together the lap he needed during FP2. The question is whether Ferrari can maintain that advantage once everyone turns things up in qualifying.

I think they can stay near the front, but I have Verstappen and Russell finding enough time to move ahead of Leclerc when Q3 arrives.

Final Prediction

P1 — Max Verstappen
P2 — George Russell
P3 — Charles Leclerc

Friday showed that this could be an extremely competitive qualifying session. Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren have all shown flashes of speed, while Isack Hadjar has been one of the surprises of the weekend after finishing third in FP1 and second in FP2.

Sepang is also proving difficult on the tyres, and with so many drivers racing here for the first time, putting together the perfect Q3 lap will not be easy.

Who do you have taking pole position at Sepang?

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