Well… that could have gone better.
After starting the season with back-to-back strong weeks, Ethical Sports Takes finally got humbled in Week 3.
We entered the week with a 22–9–1 record through the first two weeks of the season. Then Week 3 happened.
Week 3 Record: 6–10
Season Record: 28–19–1
There’s no hiding from it. Ten wrong picks is ten wrong picks.
But that’s also what makes NFL picks fun. Some weeks everything makes sense. Other weeks, the league reminds you that you don’t know nearly as much as you think you do.
Let’s review the damage.
✅ Falcons over Packers
Falcons 35, Packers 14
We started the week with one of our boldest picks — and absolutely nailed it.
Atlanta entered Lambeau Field at 0–2, but we believed the Falcons were better than their record suggested. They proved it.
Atlanta dominated Green Bay 35–14 behind a huge performance from Drake London and an offense that controlled the game throughout the night.
Picking an 0–2 Falcons team on the road against Green Bay wasn’t the safe choice.
It was the right one.
Week 3 Record: 1–0
✅ Bills over Chargers
Bills 24, Chargers 16
Buffalo made this much more difficult than it needed to be.
The Bills turned the ball over five times and still managed to beat Los Angeles 24–16.
That’s what good teams do. Even when they play sloppy football, they find a way to survive.
We trusted Buffalo, and they delivered.
Week 3 Record: 2–0
❌ Panthers over Browns
Browns 21, Panthers 18
We liked what Carolina had shown early in the season and thought the Panthers could grab a road victory in Cleveland.
Instead, the Browns escaped with a three-point win.
Close game. Wrong side.
Week 3 Record: 2–1
✅ Lions over Jets
Lions 31, Jets 24
Detroit took care of business.
The Jets kept things competitive, but the Lions did enough to secure a 31–24 victory and give us another win on the card.
Nothing complicated here.
Week 3 Record: 3–1
❌ Texans over Colts
Colts 19, Texans 17
Another close game that went against us.
We trusted Houston to beat Indianapolis, but the Colts escaped with a 19–17 victory.
Two points separated these teams. Unfortunately, two points were enough to put another loss on the picks record.
Week 3 Record: 3–2
❌ Patriots over Jaguars
Jaguars 35, Patriots 6
Yeah.
We’re not explaining this one away.
We picked New England.
Jacksonville won by 29 points.
Sometimes you make a bad pick. Sometimes your pick gets thrown into a wood chipper.
This was the latter.
Week 3 Record: 3–3
✅ Chiefs over Dolphins
Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10
Kansas City continues to take care of business.
The Chiefs controlled Miami, winning 24–10 and improving to 3–0.
We trusted Kansas City to win on the road, and they delivered.
Week 3 Record: 4–3
❌ Titans over Giants
Giants 12, Titans 7
Not exactly an offensive masterpiece.
We picked Tennessee to win a low-scoring game.
We got the low-scoring part right.
Just not the winner.
New York escaped with a 12–7 victory.
Week 3 Record: 4–4
❌ Bengals over Steelers
Steelers 30, Bengals 27
This one hurt.
We trusted Cincinnati, but Pittsburgh handed the Bengals their first loss of the season.
Aaron Rodgers bounced back with three touchdown passes, and the Steelers defense came through with the defining play late, forcing a strip sack to help seal a 30–27 victory.
A classic AFC North fight. We backed the wrong side.
Week 3 Record: 4–5
❌ Seahawks over Commanders
Commanders 33, Seahawks 31
We had Seattle ranked No. 1 in EST Elite entering Week 3.
Washington didn’t care.
With Jayden Daniels sidelined, Marcus Mariota stepped in and threw three touchdowns without an interception as the Commanders stunned Seattle 33–31.
The Seahawks still showed plenty in defeat, but Washington deserved this win.
Week 3 Record: 4–6
✅ 49ers over Cardinals
49ers 36, Cardinals 30
Finally, some relief.
Arizona pushed San Francisco hard, but Brock Purdy threw four touchdowns without an interception and helped the 49ers remain undefeated.
San Francisco survived 36–30, and we got another one on the board.
Week 3 Record: 5–6
✅ Vikings over Buccaneers
Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16
Minnesota continues to impress.
The Vikings went into Tampa Bay and earned a 23–16 victory to remain undefeated.
Jordan Addison stepped up when Justin Jefferson went down, and Minnesota found another way to win.
Unfortunately, this would be our final correct pick of the week.
Week 3 Record: 6–6
❌ Saints over Raiders
Raiders 35, Saints 27
For a while, this pick looked pretty good.
New Orleans built an 11-point second-half lead and appeared to have control of the game.
Then everything fell apart.
Las Vegas scored 19 unanswered points, Kirk Cousins remained composed and the Raiders stormed back for a 35–27 victory.
We had the right team for part of the afternoon.
Unfortunately, NFL games last four quarters.
Week 3 Record: 6–7
❌ Cowboys over Ravens
Ravens 34, Cowboys 31
Another three-point loss.
Dallas fought back and gave itself a chance late, with CeeDee Lamb making several massive plays, but Baltimore held on for the 34–31 victory.
We took Dallas. Baltimore survived.
Week 3 Record: 6–8
❌ Rams over Broncos
Broncos 30, Rams 26
We trusted Los Angeles on Sunday Night Football.
Denver had other plans.
The Broncos came away with a 30–26 victory, giving us our ninth incorrect pick of the week.
At this point, the Week 3 card was officially cooked.
Week 3 Record: 6–9
❌ Eagles over Bears
Bears 27, Eagles 7
And Week 3 ended with an exclamation point.
Just not the kind we wanted.
We picked Philadelphia to beat Chicago on Monday Night Football.
Instead, the Bears dominated the Eagles 27–7.
Chicago’s defense controlled the game, and the Bears delivered a statement victory to close out the week.
There was no dramatic final miss. There was no bad bounce.
We were simply wrong.
Very wrong.
Final Week 3 Record: 6–10
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Let’s start with the good.
Picking Atlanta over Green Bay was one of our more aggressive selections of the week, and the Falcons rewarded that confidence with a 35–14 beatdown at Lambeau.
We also correctly backed Buffalo, Detroit, Kansas City, San Francisco and Minnesota.
Then there was the bad.
Several close games went against us. Carolina lost by three. Houston lost by two. Cincinnati lost by three. Seattle lost by two. Dallas lost by three.
Flip a handful of plays and this record looks considerably different.
But close losses still count as losses.
And then there was the ugly.
Patriots over Jaguars.
Jacksonville 35. New England 6.
We’re just going to hold that L and keep moving.
Season Record: 28–19–1
Week 3 was rough, but one bad week doesn’t erase the first two.
Week 1: 11–4–1
Week 2: 11–5
Week 3: 6–10
Overall: 28–19–1
That’s a 59.4% win rate through three weeks.
We got punched in the mouth this week.
Now we find out whether we can bounce back.
Week 4 picks are coming soon.
Make sure to like and subscribe to Ethical Sports Takes for weekly NFL picks, rankings, awards, recaps and analysis throughout the season.
And remember:
When we’re right, we’ll tell you.
When we’re wrong?
We’ll tell you that too.
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