Two weeks down, and Ethical Sports Takes enters Week 3 with a 22–9–1 record on NFL picks.
Week 1: 11–4–1
Week 2: 11–5
Now it’s time to try to keep it rolling.
As always, these are straight-up winner picks. No spreads. No betting. Just who we believe will win each game.
Let’s get into all 16 games.
Atlanta Falcons over Green Bay Packers
We’re starting Week 3 with an upset.
Atlanta has been awful through two games and is coming off a 34–3 loss to Carolina. So why pick them at Lambeau?
Michael Penix Jr.
Penix is making his return to the starting lineup, and we’re betting that changing quarterbacks gives this Falcons offense the spark it desperately needs.
But there’s another part of this pick: we just don’t think Green Bay is that good.
The Packers are 1–1 and needed a fourth-quarter comeback and overtime just to escape the Jets with a 20–17 win last week. Green Bay deserves credit for finding a way to win, but nothing we’ve seen through two weeks makes us afraid to pick against them.
Atlanta has been bad. Green Bay hasn’t impressed us.
We’re taking the risk.
Pick: Falcons
Buffalo Bills over Los Angeles Chargers
Buffalo has done nothing through two weeks to make us pick against them.
Josh Allen has accounted for nine touchdowns in two games, the Bills are 2–0, and they’re coming off a 41-point performance against Detroit.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles just lost 26–14 to Las Vegas.
Going into Buffalo and beating this Bills team is a completely different challenge.
Pick: Bills
Carolina Panthers over Cleveland Browns
It’s time to give Carolina some respect.
The Panthers responded to their Week 1 loss by absolutely destroying Atlanta 34–3.
Cleveland deserves credit for beating Tampa Bay last week, so this isn’t an automatic pick. But we liked what we saw from Carolina even in their Week 1 loss, and Week 2 showed what this team can look like when everything clicks.
We’re sticking with them.
Pick: Panthers
Detroit Lions over New York Jets
Detroit’s defense is a concern.
They nearly blew their Week 1 game against New Orleans before allowing Buffalo to score 41 points in Week 2.
But offensively, this team can still score.
The Jets pushed Green Bay all the way into overtime last week, so Detroit shouldn’t take them lightly. Still, we’re trusting the Lions offense to eventually create enough points to get this done at home.
Pick: Lions
Houston Texans over Indianapolis Colts
Houston desperately needs something to go right.
The Texans are 0–2 and managed only six points against Cincinnati last week. Indianapolis, meanwhile, just pushed Kansas City into overtime at Arrowhead.
So yes, this is another risky pick.
But Houston still has too much talent for us to believe this offense is going to stay this bad forever. At some point, they have to put together a complete game.
We’re betting that happens in Week 3.
Pick: Texans
New England Patriots over Jacksonville Jaguars
New England earned our respect last week.
After we picked Pittsburgh, the Patriots went out and dominated them 20–3.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, managed only 13 points in a loss to Denver.
We’re not going to ignore what we just watched. New England’s defense looked excellent, and if that carries into Week 3, Jacksonville could have another difficult afternoon moving the football.
Pick: Patriots
Kansas City Chiefs over Miami Dolphins
Kansas City is 2–0, Patrick Mahomes just produced nearly 400 yards through the air against Indianapolis, and the Chiefs found a way to win a difficult overtime game.
Miami is 0–2 and just allowed 35 points to San Francisco.
Could Kansas City play cleaner football? Absolutely.
But we’re not picking against Mahomes and this Chiefs team here.
Pick: Chiefs
Tennessee Titans over New York Giants
Here’s another upset pick.
The Giants just got dismantled 28–6 by the Rams on Monday Night Football, and now they have a short week before facing Tennessee.
The Titans haven’t exactly given us a mountain of reasons for confidence either, but this is a spot where we’re willing to take the chance.
New York’s offense hasn’t shown enough for us to trust it right now.
More importantly, New York is dealing with a lot of uncertainty. Jaxson Dart injured his knee and may not be able to play in Week 3, while Malik Nabers also left Monday night’s game with a shoulder injury before eventually returning.
Pick: Titans
Cincinnati Bengals over Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati is 2–0.
Pittsburgh just scored three points against New England.
That’s enough for us.
The Bengals defense has been one of the early bright spots of their season, allowing only six points against Houston last week, and Pittsburgh’s offense now has to prove it can respond.
Until it does, we’re taking Cincinnati.
Pick: Bengals
Seattle Seahawks over Washington Commanders
Seattle remains No. 1 in EST Elite for a reason.
They’ve shown they can win close, and they’ve shown they can dominate. Last week, they destroyed Arizona 31–7.
Washington now enters this game without Jayden Daniels, with Marcus Mariota set to start at quarterback.
Going against Seattle would already have been difficult.
Without Daniels, we’re definitely not doing it.
Pick: Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers over Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco has looked like one of the best teams in football through two weeks.
They beat the Rams 27–7 and followed it with a 35–13 win over Miami.
Arizona now has to deal with that team after losing 31–7 to Seattle.
We don’t need to overthink this one.
Pick: 49ers
Minnesota Vikings over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Minnesota is 2–0, and now Kyler Murray is back.
The Vikings managed to beat Chicago without him, largely because their defense completely shut down the Bears.
Now they get their starting quarterback back against an 0–2 Tampa Bay team.
If Minnesota’s defense continues playing at this level and Murray gives the offense another dimension, we like the Vikings to remain undefeated.
Pick: Vikings
New Orleans Saints over Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are 2–0.
We think New Orleans ends the hot streak.
Las Vegas deserves plenty of credit. They’ve opened the season with consecutive wins, including an impressive 26–14 victory over the Chargers.
But the Saints have impressed us too.
New Orleans nearly completed a massive comeback against Detroit in Week 1 before going into Baltimore and beating the Ravens 24–17 in Week 2.
The Raiders’ undefeated start has been one of the surprises of the young season, but we’re betting it ends in New Orleans.
Pick: Saints
Dallas Cowboys over Baltimore Ravens
Another game where we’re going against a team we expected to be better.
Baltimore just lost at home to New Orleans and now has to respond against a Dallas team coming off a 37–20 win over Washington.
Dak Prescott threw four touchdowns last week, CeeDee Lamb had a monster performance, and the Cowboys offense finally looked like what we expected it to be.
This game is being played in Rio de Janeiro, so neither team gets its normal home-field advantage.
We’re trusting Dallas.
Pick: Cowboys
Los Angeles Rams over Denver Broncos
Denver is 1–1 and deserves respect after responding to its Week 1 loss with a win over Jacksonville.
But so do the Rams.
Los Angeles just responded to its Week 1 loss by destroying the Giants 28–6. Matthew Stafford threw four touchdowns, Davante Adams had 195 receiving yards, and the Rams looked dangerous on both sides of the football.
Denver should make this competitive, especially at home.
But if Stafford and this offense look anything like they did Monday night, we’re taking Los Angeles.
Pick: Rams
Philadelphia Eagles over Chicago Bears
We close Week 3 with Philadelphia.
The Eagles haven’t been dominant, but they’re 2–0, and they keep finding ways to win.
Chicago, meanwhile, went from scoring 59 points in Week 1 to scoring three against Minnesota, and Caleb Williams is now dealing with a hamstring injury.
Even if Williams manages to play, there are enough questions surrounding Chicago for us to trust the undefeated team here.
Pick: Eagles
Season Record: 22–9–1
Week 3 gives us some much tougher decisions than the record might suggest.
We’re taking a few risks, but we’re not changing picks simply because they’re uncomfortable.
Now we wait and see.
Can EST beat 11 wins for the first time this season?
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Bring on Week 3. 🏈
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