If we are going to make picks every single week, we have to stand by them and see how we actually did. No deleting the bad ones, no pretending we knew something after it happened and no only bringing up the predictions we got right. The receipts are there, so every week we are going to come back and check them.

Before the season began, I picked the winner of every Week 1 game. No spreads, no betting, just straight-up winners. We’ll keep the record running throughout the entire season and see exactly how good, or bad, we are at this by the end.

For our first week?

11–4–1.

I will absolutely take that.

✅ Seahawks over Patriots

Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Result: Seahawks 13, Patriots 10

We started the season 1–0. It certainly wasn’t easy, but Seattle escaped its Super Bowl rematch against New England with a three-point victory. The Seahawks needed a fourth-quarter comeback after trailing 10–3, but a huge 45-yard touchdown from Jaxon Smith-Njigba helped turn the game around.

Record: 1–0

✅ 49ers over Rams

Pick: San Francisco 49ers
Result: 49ers 27, Rams 7

Now THIS is one I am taking some credit for. I called San Francisco my first upset pick of the season, and instead of simply sneaking out of Australia with a victory, the 49ers dominated the Rams 27–7. Sometimes those divisional games really do get weird.

Record: 2–0

✅ Bears over Panthers

Pick: Chicago Bears
Result: Bears 59, Panthers 37

Correct team, but I certainly wasn’t expecting 59 points. Chicago’s offense absolutely exploded, with Caleb Williams accounting for four touchdowns. Carolina scored 37 themselves and still somehow lost by 22.

Record: 3–0

✅ Bengals over Buccaneers

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Result: Bengals 33, Buccaneers 27

I specifically mentioned Cincinnati’s history of ugly starts and picked them to avoid another one. They did exactly that. Tampa made them work for it, but Cincinnati opened the season with a six-point victory.

Record: 4–0

✅ Lions over Saints

Pick: Detroit Lions
Result: Lions 31, Saints 30

WAY closer than expected. New Orleans gave Detroit everything it could handle and Tyler Shough threw for 410 yards, but the Lions survived by a single point. A win is a win.

Record: 5–0

❌ Texans over Bills

Pick: Houston Texans
Result: Bills 36, Texans 31

And there goes perfection. I believed Houston’s defense could be the difference in this game, but Josh Allen had other ideas. Buffalo went into Houston and put up 36 points, with Allen accounting for four touchdowns and finally getting a victory against a Texans team that had consistently caused him problems in the past.

Record: 5–1

✅ Ravens over Colts

Pick: Baltimore Ravens
Result: Ravens 41, Colts 23

This was one of the easier calls of the week. I said Baltimore had too much talent for me to pick against them, and the Ravens backed it up with a convincing 18-point victory.

Record: 6–1

✅ Jaguars over Browns

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
Result: Jaguars 34, Browns 10

Sometimes there really is no need to overthink it. That was basically my reasoning when I made the pick, and Jacksonville proceeded to win by 24 points.

Record: 7–1

🟡 Falcons over Steelers — The Mulligan

Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Result: Steelers 20, Falcons 13

We are officially giving ourselves our first mulligan of the season on this one. When I made and published these picks, Tua Tagovailoa had not yet been announced out, and that news materially changed the circumstances surrounding Atlanta heading into Week 1. Rather than pretending that information was available when the original prediction was made, we’re calling this one a mulligan and moving on.

Record: 7–1–1

❌ Titans over Jets

Pick: Tennessee Titans
Result: Jets 23, Titans 10

This was probably one of the picks I would most like back. I liked Tennessee at home and was excited to see what Cam Ward and Carnell Tate could do, but the Jets controlled the game and held Tennessee to only 10 points.

Record: 7–2–1

❌ Chargers over Cardinals

Pick: Los Angeles Chargers
Result: Cardinals 26, Chargers 14

WOW. Nobody had this game picked. The Chargers entered Week 1 as the biggest favorites on the board, and Arizona walked into SoFi Stadium and beat them by 12. Credit where it is due: what a way for Mike LaFleur to get his first NFL win as a head coach. Arizona played a complete game and never trailed. Welcome to the NFL, Coach. We got this pick wrong, but I don’t think we were alone on this one.

Record: 7–3–1

✅ Raiders over Dolphins

Pick: Las Vegas Raiders
Result: Raiders 27, Dolphins 13

Back in the win column. I said I liked the direction of the Raiders’ roster, and they rewarded the faith with a convincing 14-point victory at home.

Record: 8–3–1

✅ Vikings over Packers

Pick: Minnesota Vikings
Result: Vikings 39, Packers 22

For a while, this pick was looking BAD. Kyler Murray’s Vikings debut ended in the first quarter after he took a brutal hit to the head while sliding and was ruled out with a concussion. Green Bay took advantage and eventually built a 22–10 lead late in the third quarter, leaving Minnesota with backup Carson Wentz trying to save the game.

Then everything changed. Wentz threw three touchdowns, including two to Justin Jefferson, and Minnesota ripped off 29 unanswered points to turn a 12-point deficit into a 17-point win. What looked like one of our losses became one of the wildest correct picks of Week 1. Losing your starting quarterback early, falling behind by double digits and still finding a way to completely take over the game? That was an impressive win.

Record: 9–3–1

✅ Eagles over Commanders

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Result: Eagles 24, Commanders 22

I said Philadelphia was simply too complete for me to pick against them at home. Washington made it extremely uncomfortable, but the Eagles held on by two.

Record: 10–3–1

❌ Cowboys over Giants

Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Result: Giants 28, Cowboys 20

My final miss of Week 1, and I have to give the Giants credit. I trusted Dallas’ offensive weapons more, but new head coach John Harbaugh has already instilled a toughness and discipline in this Giants team that I did not expect to see this early. New York was simply better in every facet of the game. They were more physical, more disciplined and looked like the better-prepared football team from start to finish. If Week 1 is any indication, Harbaugh may have this Giants turnaround moving much faster than I anticipated.

Record: 10–4–1

✅ Chiefs over Broncos

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Result: Chiefs 31, Broncos 10

And we finish Week 1 with a win. My reasoning was pretty simple when I made this pick: if Patrick Mahomes was on that field, I was taking Kansas City at Arrowhead. He was, and the Chiefs made quite the statement after their nightmare 6–11 season, beating the defending AFC West champions 31–10.

Welcome back, Kansas City.

Record: 11–4–1

Not a Bad Start

11–4–1. I will absolutely take it.

Week 1 is arguably the hardest week of the entire season to predict because we are working largely off what teams were last year and what we believe they have become during the offseason. Some of our preseason beliefs already look pretty good. Others lasted approximately four days before blowing up in our faces.

The 49ers upset pick is probably the one I am happiest about, while Tennessee and Los Angeles are two I would definitely like back. We’re also giving ourselves one mulligan for Atlanta–Pittsburgh because that pick was made before the Tua news changed the circumstances surrounding the game.

No deleting bad picks. No pretending we knew everything after the fact. The record stays all season.

FINAL WEEK 1 RECORD: 11–4–1

We’ll be back with our Week 2 picks to see if we can keep the strong start going.

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