Coming into the 2026 Formula 1 season, everyone knew Mercedes was going to be one of the teams to beat. The new regulations represented a complete reset for the sport, Mercedes appeared to have absolutely nailed them, and they had a driver who had been waiting years for the opportunity to finally fight for a World Championship.
That driver was George Russell. And why wouldn’t people believe in him?
George was coming off the best season of his Formula 1 career in 2025. He finished fourth in the Drivers’ Championship with a career-high 319 points, nine podiums, two pole positions and two victories, winning in Canada and Singapore. Mercedes themselves described it as statistically his best season in F1. Give that driver a championship-caliber Mercedes and the expectation was obvious.
George Russell could finally become World Champion.
And for one weekend in Australia, everything looked exactly how many of us expected. George put the Mercedes on pole and started the season with a dominant victory. After years of waiting for Mercedes to give him machinery capable of consistently fighting at the front, he finally had it.
Since then, however, things have become much more complicated. George still finished second in China despite Mercedes dealing with issues, but Miami was a difficult weekend by his own standards, while Canada and Belgium ended in DNFs. There have been brilliant weekends mixed with frustrating ones, including his victory in Austria, but he hasn’t been able to build the consistency that defined his 2025 season.
Meanwhile, his teammate has done exactly that.
Kimi Antonelli Has Been Incredible
There is no point trying to diminish what Kimi Antonelli has accomplished this season. The kid has been ridiculous.
After George won the opener in Australia, Kimi proceeded to win five consecutive Grands Prix, taking victories in China, Japan, Miami, Canada and Monaco. He later added another victory in Belgium, giving him six wins on the season.
After the Dutch Grand Prix, Kimi now holds a 59-point advantage over George in the Drivers’ Championship.
That is not a small lead.
But I still believe George Russell can win this championship.
We Have Already Seen How Quickly Everything Can Change
You don’t even have to go back very far to understand why 59 points isn’t enough for me to call this championship over.
Look at Oscar Piastri in 2025. After winning the Dutch Grand Prix, Piastri left Zandvoort with a 34-point championship lead over Lando Norris with only nine races remaining. At that moment, he looked like he had one hand on his first World Championship.
By Abu Dhabi, Lando Norris was World Champion, Max Verstappen finished second and Piastri had fallen all the way to third.
That is Formula 1. One DNF can erase a huge chunk of a championship lead. One bad qualifying session, reliability problem, strategy mistake or poorly timed Safety Car can completely change a title fight.
Kimi’s 59-point advantage is significant.
It is not untouchable.
George Has Already Proven How Good He Is
We watched George and Kimi share a garage for an entire season in 2025. George finished with 319 points, nine podiums and two victories and beat Kimi 21-3 in qualifying.
Obviously, Kimi is a completely different driver now. His development from rookie to championship leader has been incredible. But George didn’t suddenly forget how to drive.
We’ve already seen his speed this season. Australia. Austria. Six podiums. Four poles. The speed required to become World Champion is there.
The question is whether George can finally put together the run of weekends he needs.
The Mercedes Team Order Made No Sense
Then there was Zandvoort, and this is one decision from Mercedes that I simply do not understand.
George is still fighting for the World Championship, yet Mercedes asked him to move aside for his teammate and essentially threw him into the lions with the Ferraris sitting right behind on fresher soft tyres.
Why?
Kimi already had a significant championship advantage. George desperately needs every point he can get if he is going to bring himself back into this fight. Yet Mercedes asked him to sacrifice track position for the driver already leading him in the championship.
Yes, Kimi had fresher tyres and more pace at that stage of the race. I still don’t like the decision.
If Mercedes truly believes both drivers are allowed to fight for the World Championship, George cannot be treated like the supporting driver while he is still realistically in contention. There may eventually come a point where Mercedes has to prioritize one driver, but we are nowhere near that point yet.
George needs every championship point he can get. Mercedes should be helping him fight his way back into this championship, not making the mountain even harder to climb.
Monza Could Be the Turning Point
And that brings us to Monza.
If George is going to make a serious run at this championship, this weekend is enormous.
Kimi is set to start the Italian Grand Prix from the back of the grid because of power-unit penalties. Yes, Monza provides opportunities to overtake, and with the car Kimi has underneath him I fully expect him to make his way into the points.
But starting at the back is still starting at the back.
George has an opportunity to qualify near the front, fight for the victory and take a serious chunk out of that 59-point deficit. These are the weekends you simply cannot waste when you’re chasing a championship.
If George wins and Kimi finishes somewhere toward the lower end of the points, suddenly the championship looks very different heading into the next race.
Experience Could Matter
Kimi may be leading the championship, but he is still only in his second Formula 1 season.
George has been here since 2019. He drove terrible Williams cars at the back of the grid, dealt with the pressure of becoming Lewis Hamilton’s teammate, won races when Mercedes wasn’t consistently capable of winning and became the team’s leader after Hamilton’s departure.
Neither George nor Kimi has experienced an F1 title fight from the driver’s seat before, but George has spent considerably more time dealing with the pressure that comes with driving for Mercedes.
If this championship tightens as we approach Abu Dhabi, I believe that experience could become incredibly valuable.
I Still Believe
Am I saying George Russell should currently be considered the favorite?
No.
Kimi has earned that position. Six victories and a 59-point championship advantage speak for themselves. George has also made his job significantly harder than it needed to be.
But Formula 1 championships are not won in August.
We watched a driver hold a 34-point advantage with nine races remaining last season and ultimately finish third. We’ve already seen reliability affect Mercedes this year, and now the championship leader is heading to Monza knowing he will start from the back.
George has the car. He has the speed. He has the experience.
Now he has an opportunity.
I believed George Russell would become the 2026 Formula 1 World Champion before the season began, and even 59 points down, I am not changing my prediction.
The comeback needs to start at Monza.
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