Every year in the NFL, we have teams that exceed expectations and take a massive step forward. Unfortunately, that also means there are teams that go in the opposite direction. After everything we saw last season, which team is most likely to take the biggest step back in 2026? For me, it came down to two teams: the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots.
Why I Considered the Broncos
There is absolutely an argument for Denver. The Broncos finished 14 and 3 last season, but they trailed at some point in 12 of their 14 victories. That is an incredible accomplishment and speaks to the resilience of that team, but it is also difficult to imagine being sustainable year after year. Could Denver take a step back in 2026? Absolutely. But they are not my pick.
My Pick: New England Patriots
I am going with the defending AFC champion New England Patriots. Let’s make something clear before we go any further. I am not saying the Patriots suddenly became a bad football team. Drake Maye is one of the best young quarterbacks in football, they have a good coaching staff, and they have added even more talent around him. But everything lined up almost perfectly for New England in 2025, and expecting all of those circumstances to repeat is asking a lot.
The Patriots played one of the easiest schedules in NFL history last season. Their opponents finished with a combined winning percentage of just .391, making it the easiest schedule faced by any NFL team since the 1999 Rams and tied for the third easiest over the last 50 seasons. That changes dramatically in 2026. Based on their opponents’ records from last season, New England enters 2026 with the sixth most difficult schedule in the NFL, with its opponents combining for a .531 winning percentage.
A Brutal First Four Weeks
New England opens the season on the road against the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. They then host the Pittsburgh Steelers before traveling to face the Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills. Seattle went 14 and 3 last season, Pittsburgh went 10 and 7, Jacksonville went 13 and 4, and Buffalo went 12 and 5. Every one of New England’s first four opponents made the playoffs last season.
In fact, based on their 2025 records, the Patriots have the hardest opening four game schedule entering an NFL season since 1986. Would anyone really be shocked if New England started 1 and 3? What about 0 and 4? I wouldn’t. That doesn’t mean I am predicting either record, but when you go from one of the easiest schedules in NFL history to opening against four consecutive playoff teams, there is going to be an adjustment.
The Super Bowl Hangover Is Real
Then there is something every team that makes a deep playoff run has to deal with: the Super Bowl hangover. New England played all the way into February last season, only to lose to Seattle on the biggest stage. That means a shorter offseason, less recovery time and the mental challenge of trying to climb the mountain all over again.
History hasn’t been particularly kind to Super Bowl losers either. Looking at the last 32 Super Bowl losing teams, only three improved their regular season win total the following year, with those teams declining by an average of 3.62 wins. That doesn’t mean New England is destined to collapse. History doesn’t play football games. But it does show just how difficult it is to immediately reproduce a season like the one the Patriots just had.
A New Look Offense
The Patriots also reloaded their receiving corps this offseason, bringing in A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs to give Maye considerably more firepower. On paper, I love the additions. Brown gives New England a legitimate number one receiver, while Doubs provides another proven weapon alongside him. This offense could ultimately be better because of them.
But football isn’t played on paper. Maye now has new receivers learning the offense and developing timing and chemistry with him. That might be completely figured out by the middle of the season, but when your first four games come against Seattle, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Buffalo, there isn’t much time available to work through growing pains.
Good Team, Bigger Step Back
Again, none of this means I think New England will be bad. That isn’t my argument. The Patriots can still be a playoff caliber football team and take the biggest step back in the NFL. When you are coming off a 14 win season and a trip to the Super Bowl, there really isn’t anywhere to go but down unless you win the whole thing.
Last year New England benefited from one of the easiest schedules we have seen in decades. This year they face the sixth most difficult schedule in football, an historically brutal opening four games, the challenge of incorporating major new offensive pieces and the history that comes with being the team that lost the previous Super Bowl. Maybe Drake Maye and the Patriots prove me completely wrong, but if I have to choose one team that takes the biggest step backward in 2026, I’m going with the New England Patriots.
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