As the NFL season gets closer, it’s time to make my preseason MVP pick. I don’t think we’re going to see a repeat winner in Matthew Stafford, and I’m not going with one of the other obvious former winners such as Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson.
I think the 2026 NFL MVP award is heading to Dallas.
My pick is Dak Prescott.
Before you close the article and call me crazy, hear me out. We all know at this point that the NFL MVP award might as well be renamed the MVQB award. A non-quarterback hasn’t won the award since Adrian Peterson in 2012. That’s how quarterback dominated this award has become, and if we’re looking for a quarterback capable of producing huge statistics on a winning team, Dak absolutely belongs in the conversation.
Dak Is a Stat Machine
Make no mistake about it, MVP is heavily influenced by statistics, and Dak Prescott has repeatedly shown that he can put up huge numbers.
Just last season, Dak threw for 4,552 yards, 30 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions while completing 67.3 percent of his passes. Dallas finished only 7-9-1, which essentially killed any realistic MVP conversation, but Dak’s individual production was still excellent.
And we’ve already seen what happens when Dak combines those numbers with team success. In 2023, Prescott threw for 4,516 yards and an NFL-leading 36 touchdown passes against only nine interceptions. Dallas went 12-5, and Dak finished second in MVP voting.
That wasn’t some hypothetical MVP caliber season. We’ve already watched him come extremely close to winning the award. Now I think he has an opportunity to get even closer.
Look at These Weapons
If you’re trying to build an MVP season, it certainly helps when your offense is loaded.
Dak enters 2026 surrounded by CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson and Javonte Williams. That’s a legitimate weapon at wide receiver one, wide receiver two, tight end and running back.
Pickens was outstanding in his first season with Dallas, catching 93 passes for 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns. He gives Dak a big play threat capable of completely changing a game and forces defenses to respect both sides of the field.
Then there’s CeeDee Lamb. Even while being limited to 14 games last season, Lamb caught 75 passes for 1,077 yards. And we already know what his ceiling looks like. In 2023, Lamb exploded for 135 receptions, 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Think about what opposing defenses have to deal with. Focus too heavily on Lamb and you leave George Pickens opportunities on the other side. Give Pickens too much attention and you’re leaving one of the best receivers in football in favorable situations.
Then Dak has Jake Ferguson underneath. Ferguson caught 82 passes for 600 yards and eight touchdowns last season, giving Prescott another reliable option, particularly when Dallas gets close to the end zone.
And this offense isn’t completely dependent on Dak throwing the ball 50 times every week either. Javonte Williams rushed for 1,201 yards and 11 touchdowns last season while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. He also added two receiving touchdowns. Having a legitimate running game makes the entire offense more difficult to defend and should create even more opportunities for Dak through play action.
Lamb. Pickens. Ferguson. Williams.
Dak has weapons everywhere.
The Defense Could Actually Help Him
One of the biggest problems for Dallas last season wasn’t the offense. The Cowboys scored 27.7 points per game, seventh best in the NFL, but still finished 7-9-1. The defense simply wasn’t good enough.
That matters in an MVP race because statistics alone aren’t going to win Dak the award. Dallas needs to win games.
The Cowboys have made changes in an attempt to improve that side of the football, and the defense is one of the major reasons I’m willing to make this prediction. They don’t need to suddenly become one of the greatest defenses in NFL history. They just need to become good enough that Dak isn’t constantly being asked to overcome defensive breakdowns.
If Dallas can turn some of those high scoring losses into wins, suddenly the entire conversation surrounding Dak changes.
A 4,500 yard, 30 touchdown quarterback on a seven win team isn’t winning MVP.
A 4,500 plus yard quarterback approaching 40 touchdowns while leading Dallas to 11 or 12 wins?
Now we’re talking.
The Schedule Gives Dak a Chance to Prove It
Dallas isn’t going to have an easy path either. The Cowboys are projected by some strength of schedule measurements to face one of the NFL’s toughest schedules in 2026, with games against teams such as Baltimore, Houston, Green Bay, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Seattle and the Rams.
And I actually think that could help Dak’s MVP case.
If you’re going to win the most prestigious individual regular season award in football, beating bad teams isn’t enough. You need moments, and Dak is going to have opportunities to create them.
If Dallas walks into games against some of the best teams in football and Dak throws for 300 plus yards and three touchdowns while leading the Cowboys to victories, voters are going to notice. The difficult schedule gives him plenty of chances to build an MVP résumé.
My Prediction
Is Dak Prescott the best quarterback in the NFL?
No.
If I were starting a team tomorrow and could choose any quarterback, there are players I would take ahead of him. But that’s not what I’m predicting.
I’m predicting who will have the combination of statistics, team success, supporting cast and signature wins necessary to win the 2026 NFL MVP award.
Dak already threw for more than 4,500 yards last season. He already has one of football’s best receiving duos in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Jake Ferguson gives him a reliable tight end. Javonte Williams gives Dallas balance out of the backfield. And if the Cowboys’ defense takes a meaningful step forward, Dak should finally have the team success necessary to make those statistics matter.
We’ve already seen him finish second in MVP voting.
This year, I’m predicting he finishes one spot higher.
My 2026 NFL MVP: Dak Prescott.
If you liked this article, make sure to like the post and subscribe to Ethical Sports Takes for more NFL predictions, rankings and opinions throughout the 2026 season. When the season ends, we’ll come back to this prediction and see whether I nailed another one or whether this article aged horribly.
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