There is no question that the Silver Arrows—or Toto Wolff more specifically—would love to see Max Verstappen driving a Mercedes.
Why wouldn’t they?
We’re talking about a four-time world champion and one of the greatest drivers Formula 1 has ever seen. If a driver like Max becomes available, every team on the grid should at least pick up the phone.
But despite all the rumors that have surrounded Verstappen and Mercedes, I don’t think it will happen.
The biggest reason is actually pretty simple: Max Verstappen has always struck me as an extremely loyal person.
Red Bull gave Max his opportunity. They promoted him to the senior team when he was still a teenager, and together they have built one of the most dominant driver-team partnerships Formula 1 has ever seen.
Four consecutive World Drivers’ Championships later, Max is synonymous with Red Bull Racing.
Yes, things haven’t gone perfectly this season. Max doesn’t have a victory yet, although he has still managed to put the car on the podium four times. Red Bull isn’t giving him the dominant machinery he enjoyed during the peak of this era.
But leaving Red Bull means giving something up that I think matters to Max:
Control.
At Red Bull, Max is the guy.
The team has been built around him. He knows the engineers. He knows the organization. He knows exactly how the team operates. And when Max wants something from his car or his team, Red Bull has spent years demonstrating that they’re willing to listen.
Would he have that same level of influence at Mercedes?
I’m not convinced.
One thing about Mercedes-AMG Petronas is that when they design a dominant car, they design a dominant car. That’s the philosophy. Build the fastest machine possible and expect the drivers sitting inside it to extract its performance.
Mercedes isn’t Red Bull, and Toto Wolff isn’t going to rebuild the entire identity of Mercedes around Max Verstappen simply because Max walks through the door.
Then there is Max himself.
His father, Jos Verstappen, bounced around Formula 1 throughout his career, driving for seven different teams. Max’s career has been almost the complete opposite.
And I don’t think that’s accidental.
Max doesn’t strike me as someone chasing the experience of driving for every legendary Formula 1 constructor before he retires. He doesn’t seem like someone who needs to wear Ferrari red, Mercedes silver and McLaren papaya just so he can say he did it.
He strikes me as someone who could spend his entire prime with Red Bull, accomplish everything he wants to accomplish, and then simply call it a career.
That’s what makes the Mercedes rumors difficult for me to buy.
Could Mercedes give him a faster car? Absolutely.
Could Toto Wolff make him an enormous offer? Of course.
Could the competitive picture eventually become bad enough at Red Bull that Max changes his mind? Sure.
But there’s a difference between Mercedes wanting Max Verstappen and Max Verstappen wanting Mercedes.
I have never doubted the first part.
It’s the second part I’m not convinced about.
Maybe one day Max proves me completely wrong and we see him step out of the garage wearing Mercedes silver.
But if I had to predict how his career ends today?
Max Verstappen drives for Red Bull until the day he decides he’s had enough of Formula 1—and then he walks away.
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